2min chapter

FiveThirtyEight Politics cover image

How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did

FiveThirtyEight Politics

CHAPTER

Are the Polls Fake or Fake?

There were a couple things happening. Polls was being worried about overestimating Democrats again. There's also the possibility that throughout the entire cycle, polls were underestimating Democrats and had the election happened around Labor Day, Democrats would have done even better. Other factors like concerns about the economy, what have you did end up ultimately helping Republicans. Those are three possible factors in terms of what happened between Labor Day and November 8th.

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