Email's comeback: reply rate as KPI

Joe and Robert kick off their annual predictions episode by grading last year's forecasts using ChatGPT. They revisit what hit, what missed, and why context often ruins otherwise solid predictions. Along the way, they discuss AI's uneven progress, platform power shifts, crypto hype, nostalgia marketing, podcast attrition, and the growing tension between tech optimism and cultural fatigue.

The episode closes with fresh predictions spanning marketing, media, sports, and culture.

2025 Predictions Reviewed (with AI grading)

• BlueSky stalls while X stabilizes and improves monetization

• TikTok avoids a ban and continues to grow despite regulatory pressure

• AI image tools (including early Sora) underwhelm initially

• Bitcoin fails to hit $200K despite strong institutional momentum

• Generative AI stumbles, but without a single catastrophic "AI Chernobyl"

• Online sports gambling faces increased scrutiny and structural pullbacks

• Podcast attrition accelerates quietly ("pod fading")

• Major brands lean hard into nostalgia as a hedge against AI sameness

• One major political prediction completely misses

2026 Prediction Overview

Joe goes deep into the importance of email as an indication of humanity and states that the reply rate will be the key KPI for email moving forward. In addition, he makes big bets on: - Famous creators stopping their channels - Elon Musk's net worth at the end of the year - Apple buying Disney

Robert believes that AI strategy will no longer be in vogue, and marketers will stop using it altogether because AI will be integrated into everything. Robert also discusses "the Mamdani effect" and how it will take over the election process. Tune in to the episode to get all the predictions right up to the very last minute.

Subscribe and Follow: Follow Joe Pulizzi and Robert Rose on LinkedIn for insights, hot takes, and weekly updates from the world of content and marketing.

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Get all the show notes: https://www.thisoldmarketing.com/

Get Joe's new book, Burn the Playbook, at http://www.joepulizzi.com/books/burn-the-playbook/ Subscribe to Joe's Newsletter at https://www.joepulizzi.com/signup/.

Get Robert Rose's new book, Valuable Friction, at https://robertrose.net/valuable-friction/ Subscribe to Robert's Newsletter at https://seventhbearlens.substack.com/

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This Old Marketing is part of the HubSpot Podcast Network: https://www.hubspot.com/podcastnetwork