Virginia Governor Race Outlook

On today's podcast:
1) Zohran Mamdani’s lead heading into the New York City mayoral election has withstood a furious push from Republicans, establishment Democrats and a coalition of Wall Street dealmakers. Aspects of Mamdani’s campaign that some thought would doom his candidacy — his vociferous criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, his past calls to defund the police and his refusal to flee from the political label of socialist — haven’t turned off a plurality of New York voters, despite a torrent of campaign spending from some of the city’s wealthiest residents. Instead, the 34-year-old assemblyman’s campaign — with its focus on core economic concerns combined with an online charm offensive and occasional searing barb at his critics — is working well enough that some political observers see a model for future Democratic candidates and races. Nationally, Tuesday’s results could provide a muddled message for Democrats.
2) Governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey and California’s redistricting ballot measure are among the elections on ballots Tuesday, providing a barometer of voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. While Mamdani’s progressive campaign has given him a lead in New York, the candidates leading the polls in governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia — Representative Mikie Sherrill and former Representative Abigail Spanberger, respectively — come from the more centrist range of the Democratic spectrum.
The race in New Jersey has tightened in the past few weeks between Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, as voters express dismay over high electricity bills and general affordability issues under the state’s current Democratic governor. Republicans would love to eke out a victory there — even as polls narrowly favor Sherrill — after President Donald Trump endorsed Ciattarelli and called him “100% (PLUS!)” on the MAGA agenda.
In Virginia, Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger looks likely to prevail over the Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. The huge number of federal workers in Northern Virginia, frustrated by the government shutdown and the DOGE cuts, gave Spanberger a built-in constituency. And she’s made sure to talk about issues key to local voters — inflation, schools, health care — rather than solely going with an anti-Trump message. If Democrats lose one of these races, expect even more hand-wringing over the party’s tarnished national brand and its inability to capitalize on Trump’s unpopularity.
3) As the government shutdown enters its 34th day, lawmakers face mounting pressure to reach a resolution. Major US airports are facing staffing shortages leading to ground delays, the distribution of food assistance is up in the air, and more federal workers are missing paychecks as the shutdown is on track to become the longest in history. Senators are increasingly optimistic about finding a path to reopen the government, but any resolution will likely have to wait until after tomorrow’s off-year elections, which could sway either side to move depending on the results.

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