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“In 6 to 12 Months, We’re Going To Have A Big Problem” | Eric Basmajian & Joseph Wang
Forward Guidance
What Is a Recession?
Real income and real consumption would certainly check the box for recession. However employment is still growing out of 4% 4.5% annualized rate. When you take the average of all of those components of the economy It's sort of balancing out at this trend level of 2%. Although it's very bifurcated and when we look at economic cycles those four corners work in a cyclical fashion so if you have lower income and you have lower consumption Then you're gonna eventually companies are gonna have too much inventory.
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