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4min chapter
(Mis)interpreting the Fed
What Goes Up
What's the Risk That Keeps You Up at Night?
Despite decline in CPI and wage inflation, it's still too high to be consistent with inflation becoming anchored at target level. The risk that keeps me up at night is that we get this decline in inflation in the first half of the year, which we know is happening. But then all of a sudden it starts to show signs that it may start to bubble up in 2024 and beyond. And then they have to come back in and start hiking again from an already highly base. That would be really bad for our surprises.
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