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A 2023 Global Macro Outlook | Joseph Wang & George Goncalves

Supply Shock

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The Three Tens Curve Is a Big, Broad Curve

From 1990, basically to 2020, we've had these kind of steeper curves. Whereas pre-1987, pre-the stock market crash, from the 1960s to the early 80s, we had a very hyperactive curve. So if you have that more activist central bank world, you have a curve that moves around a lot more but stays flatter and volatility is higher. That requires more risk premium for every asset price.

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