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Prediction Market FAQ

Astral Codex Ten Podcast

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5 Reasons Why Prediction Markets Are Important

Prediction markets have many limitations. They can't predict far future events, for example human extinction. There are complicated biases in predicting conditionals. One way around these is to see who keeps winning prediction markets and ask them to predict issues directly. This would lose the well-aligned incentives and canonicity of prediction markets but it might be better than asking random experts with no skill at prediction to do this.

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