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29 // Thinking in probabilities with Taimur Abdaal

Metamuse

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How to Estimate the Time in a Scenario?

In the worst case, you are thinking about this set of plausible range. The only sort of rigorous way to do this is by running lots on lots of simulations for possible senaros that could happen. In one simulation of the buffe, he three dishes might take less than an hour and seven dishes might take more than an hour or something. And if you ran a few thousand simulations, you could get an idea of, like, you know, 95 % of the time, how long does the buffet take?

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