Why ARR can be misleading in AI

Michael Mignano, Partner at $30B VC firm Lightspeed, and the co-founder of Anchor, a podcast creation, hosting, and monetization platform acquired by Spotify in 2019, joins Sourcery to discuss the next era of creation & technology investing.

In this episode, Michael shares how his background building consumer media products informs the way he invests today, with a focus on AI and creativity-driven companies. We discuss his portfolio, including investments in xAI, Neuralink, Suno, Pika, Granola, and Macroscope, and how he evaluates AI businesses when incumbents can move quickly.

The conversation digs into what makes AI companies defensible today, from retention-driven moats to why ARR metrics can be misleading. Michael shares his reaction to the Sora launch and avatars, and what these changes could mean for creators. 

We also touch on evolving early-stage check sizes, lessons from Spotify’s Daniel Ek, his work on Obo, and thoughts on potential IPO candidates.

Michael Mignano: https://x.com/mignano

Molly O’Shea: ⁠https://x.com/MollySOShea⁠

Sourcery: ⁠https://x.com/sourceryvc

𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒

YouTube : https://youtu.be/m0lZ3JdZw7s

𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒

• Brex—The modern finance platform, combining the world’s smartest corporate card with integrated expense management, banking, bill pay, & travel. https://brex.com/sourcery

• Turing—Turing delivers top-tier talent, data, and tools to help AI labs improve model performance—and enables enterprises to turn those models into powerful, production-ready systems. https://turing.com/sourcery

• Deel—Deel is the global people platform that helps startups hire, manage, pay, and equip anyone, anywhere. Trusted by more than 35,000 fast-growing companies, Deel is the people platform that just works, so teams can scale without the chaos. Visit: https://www.deel.com/sourcery

• Public–Investing platform Public just launched Generated Assets, which lets you turn any idea into an investable index with AI. With Generated Assets, you can build, backtest, refine, and invest in any thesis with AI. Gone are the days of one-size-fits-all ETFs. https://public.com/sourcery

Follow Sourcery for the latest updates!

https://www.sourcery.vc/

Disclosure

Paid Endorsement. Brokerage services by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors LLC, SEC-registered adviser. Crypto trading provided by Zero Hash LLC, licensed by the NYSDFS. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool by Public Advisors. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. See disclosures at public.com/disclosures/ga. Matched funds must remain in your account for at least 5 years. Match rate and other terms are subject to change at any time.

𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒

(00:00) Michael Mignano

(01:06) Anchor’s pivot & podcasting’s breakout moment

(02:32) Spotify’s Talk org: podcasts, video, and live audio

(02:55) Why synchronous (live) formats fail online

(03:27) Joining Lightspeed & portfolio overview

(03:47) Investment thesis: creativity, product taste, founders

(05:24) How xAI & Neuralink fit Lightspeed’s strategy

(06:56) Is OpenAI “Sherlocking” ?

(08:37) Granola & retention as the real AI moat

(09:52) Why ARR can be FAKE in AI startups

(11:20) Seed vs Series A check sizes & AI valuation premiums

(19:34) Sora, avatars, recommendation media, & creator economics

(33:37) Oboe: AI education & human intelligence

(40:01) Lessons from Daniel Ek & Spotify’s long-term strategy

(42:55) IPO predictions & what comes next