How to Make a Good Prediction

Ben: I didn't read the instructions for this exercise before we said about making our predictions. We're calibrating how risky our predictions are here because we could go either way, right? If you wanted to play it completely chalky, which is usually my approach to these things, then you could just take incredibly safe picks and you might actually win. But if everyone else takes extreme long shots and even if they're just losing a couple points on each one, if none of them comes true, they might end up in negative territory.