Gold's Current Breakout and Short-Term Targets

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA, Editor and Publisher of The Daily Gold, and author of the book “Gold & Silver – The Greatest Bull Market Has Begun – A Once In A Lifetime Investment Opportunity”, joins us to review his medium-term technical outlook for the precious metals space, some potential targets and approaches if we see an intermediate-term corrective move in the gold and silver stocks, and some nuanced approaches for when to buy, hold, or trim positions in ones portfolio.  

 Key topics discussed:

• Gold looks to be still breaking out of the recent bull flag, and may have a little room left to run to upside targets of $3,900 - $3,950.

• The short to medium-term picture is a bit more murky, and so it is unclear if gold has the energy to blast up past $4,000-$4,200, completing the logarithmic extension of the longer-term 13-year cup and handle pattern breakout, before putting in a more meaningful corrective move, or…

• After this current moves tops, then we’ll likely see a more meaningful correction to digest these moves. Investors and traders will need to get clear on their strategy of whether they want to just hold through that period and add to positions with cash reserves once it is extended, or if they want to get out of the way of the move down.

• If GDX and GDXJ both correct down by 20%-25% then some of the juniors may go down about double that by 40%-50%. Investors should have a strategy in advance of how they want to approach that kind of scenario in the portfolio or watch list, should that play out in the medium-term.

• With regards to when to trim, Jordan advises that there are 3 scenarios that he considers: 1) if a position has become to large of a weighting within one’s portfolio. (2) if a longer term 3-5 year chart shows a stock has done a huge parabolic rhino horn, as there is likely not as good of a risk/reward setup at this point (3) if the fundamentals drivers for a stock have changed or lack the value creation catalysts over the next 12-18 months.

• He also goes on to unpack why he currently has a higher concentration to silver stocks than is typical, when compared to his normal weighting to gold positions, when we are at this point in the cycle, where silver has started to lead.

• Jordan also shares why he’s positioned in more developers and producers in his portfolio than explorers at this point in the cycle. He is seeing the biggest value in the developers with defined ounces in the ground and improving economic studies based on the higher metals prices.

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