The Fat Tail Risk

I don't need there to be a high likelihood in order for me to be very concerned about it because of how disastrous an outcome that would be. I think we're just assuming that China's going to stay out of it. It seems to me they could enter the Russian side, not militarily, but in terms of support. And then by the same token, I think the Russians could lash out. If the markets think they have priced in the effect of this war, then I think that's an argument for a lot of downside to this market.