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Eric Basmajian: Further Downside Ahead For Risk Asset's
Market Depth
Is a Q1 Recession Possible?
The percentage of GDP that comes from housing and durable goods is an extremely cyclical indicator. It only makes up anywhere between 10 to 15% of the economy, but it's expanding rapidly as the economy grows. If you look at the average lead time from the peak in the relative share of housing and goods as a percentage of GDP to the start of the recession, it's on average seven quarters. The peak this time was in Q2 of 2021. Fast forward seven quarters if you use the average, that places a potential recessionary start date in Q1.
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