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Ep. 249 - The Sleeping Beauty Problem

The Local Maximum with Max Sklar

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The Half or Position?

Metaculous is a game where you're giving probabilities. And I believe Metaculous uses systems at least similar to that, if not exactly that. But the problem is that, you know, are you just multiplying Tuesday's scores together like I'm giving two probabilities? So then the half or position would be right if that's how it's scored. If we were talking about average loss on Monday versus average loss on Tuesday, then I think you're going to have to say one half.

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