3min chapter

Odd Lots cover image

Where Stress Is Showing in the $20 Trillion Commercial Real Estate Market

Odd Lots

CHAPTER

How Long Can Private Property Valuations Resist the Gravity of Lower Prices?

The first thing that happens is transaction volumes bottom out. You have to see transaction volumes decline precipitously before property valuations begin declining. This time is much different because financing costs are significantly higher, not just because of the risk free rate and widen credit spreads. We were in a stag, stag, stagflationary environment in 2022. That doesn't really exist since 1970. It's a much different ball game than what we've played before.

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