We're Not Going to Do a Two Parter Well, but We'll See

This episode of "The Poor Proles Almanac" uses the Syrian Civil War as a model to explore the potential for a similar societal collapse in the United States. The hosts, Elliott and Andy, acknowledge that history doesn't repeat itself verbatim but argue that examining historical parallels can provide valuable insights into potential future scenarios. The episode focuses on the interplay of economics, politics, religion, and social unrest as key factors contributing to the Syrian crisis, drawing alarming parallels to current trends in the United States.

Syria: A History of Internal Divisions and External Interference

The episode begins by providing a historical overview of Syria, highlighting its complex tapestry of ethnic and religious groups. The hosts emphasize that arbitrary borders drawn by colonial powers exacerbated these internal divisions, creating a fragile social fabric vulnerable to exploitation.

They discuss how competing visions of national identity further fueled tensions. The Muslim Brotherhood advocated for a homogenous Arab Sunni state, while secular nationalists sought a more inclusive, territorially defined nation. This struggle for a unified identity played a significant role in shaping the political landscape.

The Assad Regimes: A Balancing Act of Power and Placation

The episode then turns to the Assad regimes, beginning with Hafez al-Assad, who came to power in 1970 amidst international crises and internal strife. His secular Ba'ath Party initially appeared to offer a solution to Syria's disunity. However, his attempts to bridge the gap between Islam and the Alawite minority, to which he belonged, proved largely unsuccessful, as demonstrated by the violent backlash from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Hafez al-Assad's approach to governance was characterized by a combination of authoritarianism and placating the populace with social programs and subsidies. This strategy, while maintaining a semblance of order, ultimately failed to address the underlying social and economic issues.

Bashar al-Assad, who succeeded his father in 2000, initially adopted a more conciliatory approach but ultimately continued his father's authoritarian path. However, his embrace of neoliberal economic policies in the 2000s proved disastrous.

The Neoliberal Turn: Sowing the Seeds of Economic Collapse

Bashar al-Assad's neoliberal policies, characterized by privatization, liberalization, and the reduction of social welfare programs, mirrored similar trends in the United States under Reagan. These policies led to:

• Increased wealth inequality: The Syrian upper class and foreign investors benefited at the expense of the vast majority of Syrians.
• Rising poverty rates: Despite GDP growth, poverty became widespread, particularly in rural areas.
• Job insecurity and informal labor: The rise of informal labor and the erosion of labor rights left many, especially young people, struggling to make ends meet.
• Environmental degradation: The focus on short-term profits led to unsustainable agricultural practices, contributing to soil depletion and water shortages.

These economic hardships, coupled with existing social and political tensions, created a powder keg ready to explode.

The Spark: From Drought to Civil War

The episode identifies the devastating drought of 2006-2010, exacerbated by climate change and unsustainable agricultural practices, as the immediate trigger for the Syrian Civil War. The drought, combined with ongoing U.S. military intervention in the region, led to mass displacement, economic collapse, and widespread social unrest.

The government's violent response to peaceful protests in 2011 ignited a full-blown civil war. The conflict quickly devolved into a multi-sided struggle, with various rebel groups, foreign jihadists, and the Syrian government vying for power.

The episode highlights the brutality and sectarian violence that characterized the conflict, drawing parallels to the religious wars of 16th and 17th century Europe.

Disturbing Parallels: The United States on the Brink?

The episode concludes by drawing unsettling parallels between the situation in Syria and the current state of the United States. The hosts argue that many of the factors that led to Syria's collapse are present in the U.S., including:

• Rising economic inequality and social unrest: The neoliberal economic model has created a vast wealth gap, leaving many Americans struggling to survive.
• Political polarization and a delegitimization of democratic processes: The rise of extremist ideologies and the increasing willingness to disregard democratic norms pose a significant threat to political stability.
• A history of military interventionism and its consequences: The U.S.'s history of foreign intervention has created instability and fueled resentment in many parts of the world, with potential blowback effects domestically.
• The looming threat of climate change and resource scarcity: Climate change-induced droughts and other environmental disasters could further strain resources and exacerbate social tensions.
• The rise of right-wing extremism and militia groups: The growing number of hate groups and the increasing acceptance of violence as a political tool are a cause for alarm.

The episode paints a stark picture of the potential for a similar societal collapse in the United States, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to address these underlying issues and prevent a similar descent into chaos.

 

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