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Three Economic Stories to Watch in 2023

Ones and Tooze

CHAPTER

Is There a Risk of a Yield Curve in Japan?

The Japanese central bank has been telling you, don't look here because we are committed to yield curve control. They have obviously just gone looking for other sorts of deals. And that's complicated because then you take an exchange risk and the yen fluctuates against the dollar in the euro. Whatever interest rate advantage you gain by investing in Europe in the US can be compensated by the cost of hedging against exchange rate fluctuations. It's not likely to play out like this, but the thing that worries the market is a scenario in which the Japanese abruptly end yield curves control.

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