Being too focused on an existential disaster that could lead to ultimate doom itis a waste of time, ecause that's not going to happen. And bhe miss the real threats, which are these curtailments of freedom andd liberty and things like that. So we should listen to cassandras. The problem is, there's an endless stream of em which one should we pay attention to? We weigh more predictions of disaster than there are disasters. i think from the way the timonese and south karean succeeded in the last year, that it's better to be generally paranoid than specifically prepared.
Disasters are inherently hard to predict. Pandemics, like earthquakes, wildfires, financial crises, and wars, are not normally distributed; there is no cycle of history to help us anticipate the next catastrophe. In this episode, Michael Shermer speaks with one of the world’s most renowned historians, Niall Ferguson, who explains why our ever more bureaucratic and complex systems are making us worse, not better, at handling disasters.