Can We Expect the Next 40 Years to Remain the Same?

For the greater part of most of 70 years, stocks were auto correlated. That ended during the Nixon shock where they actually had devaluation against gold. And then at that point, stocks went from being trend based to kind of mean reverting based until it mean reversion reached all time highs last year. So based on this, I like to say that recency bias is a systemic risk. The expectation that the next 40 years, it looks like last 40 years, is actually a systemic risk to pension solvency and retirement solvency. If history repeats, okay, the 60-40 portfolio fine. But it's very difficult to sit back and say with rates where they are,

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