A Green Light for Fed Easing? ft. Warren Pies & Andreas Steno
Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Intro
A macro deep dive conversation at Real Vision featuring the founder of 3.14 Research and the portfolio manager of the FCTE ETF, discussing the implications of potential Fed easing and the launch of the ETF.
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Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, welcomes Warren Pies, founder and lead strategist at 3Fourteen Research, to examine where we're at in terms of inflation, Fed policy, and broader macro implications. They also dig into the construction cycle, commodities markets, the U.S. Dollar, and risk assets.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Sponsor: Token2049 in Singapore.
(01:03) - Introduction with Andreas Steno and Warren Pies.
(01:37) - Discussion on the US economy and CPI report.
(05:18) - Disinflationary tailwinds and shelter inflation.
(10:11) - Goldman Sachs' prediction on rate cuts.
(15:31) - Credit creation's role in bull markets.
(17:11) - Sector rotation and Trump presidency impact.
(17:50) - Political influence on market and tax policies.
(18:49) - Spending and deficits impact on markets.
(19:52) - Potential impacts of extending tax cuts.
(20:28) - Construction cycle and employment trends.
(21:36) - Multi-family and single-family housing trends.
(22:07) - Housing employment model as economic indicator.
(23:12) - Emerging slack in residential construction labor.
(24:21) - Rate cuts' impact on real estate market.
(25:22) - Controlled return of housing supply.
(26:00) - Homebuilding stocks and inflation prints.
(27:01) - Real estate market affordability and millennial demand.
(27:41) - Divergence between gold and oil.
(28:13) - Commodity super cycle thesis.
(28:47) - Gold's role as a monetary commodity.
(29:51) - Oil market dynamics and OPEC's influence.
(30:56) - OPEC's actions and oil prices.
(31:30) - Saudi Arabia's investment cuts and OPEC strategies.
(32:35) - Long-term sustainability of OPEC's influence.
(33:03) - Potential outcomes of a price war.
(34:03) - Political influence on energy investments.
(40:39) - Gold as a safe haven.
(44:52) - Historical earnings growth in bull markets.
(48:43) - Closing remarks and macro deep dive outlook.
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