New Jersey's Democratic Surge Explained

On this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck breaks down the latest in Washington as the government shutdown nears its end—and the political fallout begins. Democrats have shown more backbone than expected, while Donald Trump’s strategy has Republicans quietly questioning his grip on power. From his push to cut SNAP benefits for his own voters to his increasingly distorted view of the economy, Trump’s disconnect from reality is starting to cost him. Chuck also looks at the Democrats’ strong showing in the recent elections, what it says about voter sentiment heading into 2026, and whether we’re witnessing the beginning of Trump’s lame duck era. Plus, the ripple effects of Trump’s policies—from affordability to the upcoming World Cup—and what Mike Johnson’s loyalty to Trump means for the GOP’s future.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the surrender of the Ottoman Empire after World War 1 and the lasting implications for peace in the middle east, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and breaks down the weekend in college football.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:30 End of the government shutdown seems imminent 

02:15 Democrats have had a stiffer spine than expected

03:00 Surprising that Trump fought to cut SNAP, many were his voters

04:30 Trump ran on protecting benefits, has done the opposite during shutdown

05:15 Trump keeps claiming the economy is better than it is

06:00 Is Trump in an information bubble that’s not giving him reality?

07:00 Trump being out of touch is making Republicans start to distance from them

08:45 Mamdani’s election was not “the most important” result

09:45 New Jersey governor result was more revealing than Mamdani’s

10:30 Democrats win in Nov 4th election showed it was a referendum on Trump

12:00 Democrats should take the win and cut a deal to end shutdown

13:00 Are we entering the lame duck period of Donald Trump’s presidency?

14:45 Trump’s handling of the shutdown has been terrible politics for Republicans

16:15 The affordability message penetrated, culture war didn’t at all

17:30 Trump’s policies are creating a mess ahead of the 2026 World Cup

19:00 Trump is more focused on his image rather than affordability

19:45 Some Republicans are realizing they’ll have to break with Trump

22:15 Mike Johnson has basically become Donald Trump’s puppet

23:30 Trump is either losing his grip on reality, or trying to remake it

25:00 Trump falling asleep in meetings is a big deal

31:30 November 11th, 1918 World War 1 ends 

32:15 Surrender of Ottoman Empire is largely forgotten, hugely consequential 

33:15 Terms of surrender were incredibly harsh 

34:00 European powers began carving up the middle east 

34:45 Europe stopped fighting, the middle east didn't 

36:15 In the US, World War 1 is only taught as a prequel to WW2 

37:15 WW1 is the reason the middle east is still a mess today 

39:15 We need to improve how we teach the history of World War 1 

40:15 Ask Chuck 

40:30 Can you explain why the senate has 60 vs. 50 vote thresholds? 

45:45 Should the Virgin islands join with other islands to become a state? 

46:45 Love for the election night livestream 

48:00 Why haven't the 2026 federal appropriations been approved? 

50:30 Chuck's experience at Vets for Tech event 

59:45 College football reaction

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