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Can Host Inflation?
Stagflation seems like the nightmare scenario for central banks. If you don't fight inflation, you have a de anchoring of inflation expectation and then you end up in a nightmare. Even if it's a negative supply shock as opposed to aggregate demand,. You have to tighten monetary policy to make sure that you don't have an unhinging of inflation expectation. In previous recession, like COVID GFC, we could do monetary and fiscal easing because you had deflation. Now we need to tighten monetary fiscal policy into recession. And therefore, as I pointed out, we get the worst of the 70s and theworst of the GFC. It's going to be long, ugly,