Andreas Steno, founder of Steno Research, discusses the resurgence of inflation and its impact on the global economy, and his contrarian take that the next move from the Federal Reserve could be a rate hike.
In this episode, Steno highlights the labor market as a major driver of inflation, with wage pressures increasing due to labor scarcity. Steno suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to hike interest rates instead of cutting them, but acknowledges the political challenges of such a move.
He also discusses the macro situation in Europe, with Germany and France struggling while southern European economies thrive.
Steno is the former Global Chief Strategist of Nordea, Northern Europe's largest bank.
This episode was recorded on February 19.
Links:
https://stenoresearch.com/
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:49 The macro view: inflation resurgence
02:38 Indicators of inflation resurgence
04:40 Labor market and wage pressures
07:00 Federal Reserve's interest rate policy
09:00 Possibility of a rate hike
10:26 Implications for markets
14:12 Structural changes in the labor market
15:48 Surprising rebound in asset markets
18:50 The European macro situation
21:40 Implications of production shifts in Europe
24:00 Watching Europe from the outside
26:00 Portfolio construction
27:50 The Fed's rate hikes paused too soon
29:15 Parting thoughts
