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S5 Ep54: Understanding US inflation

VoxTalks Economics

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Is There Anything That Fiscal Policy Can Do to Prevent This From Happening?

The IMF predicts that inflation will return to 2% in 2024, if unemployment stays at 4.4%. But with more pessimistic assumptions where the beverage curve stays roughly where it is, we could easily see 6% inflation in 2024. Even worse scenario: Unemployment going up to 7.5%, then inflation robustly returns to the target but at a goal of very high end for long-done employment.

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