The Fed Is Forecasting Recessionary Conditions

The fed is calling for core PC to end the year of 2023 at 3.5%. We've never seen core PC decline 120 basis points over a 13 month timeframe without an actual recession. So that's set one to the fed is already implicitly implying that hey look we're going to have to do enough to get inflation down which ultimately may cause a recession. And number two they're being very explicit in my opinion about you know the unwillingness to ease next year. The market is currently pricing the fed to do it about face and pivot as quickly as July and ultimately another recut in December of this year. But I'm not so sure just given the dynamics in the labor market that they