The Model Launched - How Did Things Progress Since the Forecast

When we launched the forecast in february, we gave emanual mcroni abroughly 80% chance of ultimately winning. Back then, he was at about 24%. And the poles, after russia launched its invasion of ukraine, he shot up a bit to about 30%. But has since fallen back down to earth about 26%, according to our average. What really changed is tht the marine lapin his 20 17 challenger, has surged roughly from 17 % to 23%. So the model is looking a lot closer than it did before, giving mc cron only a 74 percent chance of winning. That means the average error historically would be enough to up end his lead