When i make decisions, i don't think i go through a st of mental models or anything like that. The way i use mental models is, well, i try to read a lot and to learn a lot of things about the fundamentals of different kinds of fields. Base rates are such a kee mental model. They're the cornerstone of what we do. S absolutely extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Andt if your model assumes this, shouldn't there be some justification for assuming this?

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