TIVP030: PayPal (PYPL): Value Trap or Multibagger? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
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Insights and Future Picks in Investment Strategy
The chapter delves into the investment potential of PayPal, highlighting the significance of position sizing and advertising opportunities. The hosts also provide a teaser for the next episode, focusing on a company poised to disrupt current business models.
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley dive into PayPal’s post-pandemic reset, tracing the fintech pioneer’s slide from market darling to value-story candidate. Once lifted by lockdown spending and eBay tailwinds, PayPal has seen its growth stall, its take-rate decline, and investors seem to have given up on it. In this episode, Shawn and Daniel unpack whether new CEO Alex Chriss’s “profitable growth” playbook, Fastlane one-click checkout, a margin-focused Braintree overhaul, and fresh bets on Ads and the PYUSD stablecoin, can restore momentum.
They also debate how realistic PayPal’s ambitious goals for the future are, what a sustained 6% share shrink via buybacks does for long-term EPS, how the new management team is incentivized, and whether PayPal’s consumer moat still matters in an Apple-Pay world.
IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN
00:00 - Intro 04:38 - How PayPal became the No.1 payment provider and what the PayPal Mafia is. 09:47 - Why investors fell out of love with PayPal’s stock. 14:03 - What the next chapter under the new CEO will look like. 26:42 - Which new businesses could make PayPal dramatically more profitable? 33:31 - How the new strategy shows up in the numbers. 50:06 - Why the management incentive structure is a big benefit for shareholders. 51:36 - Whether stablecoins are bearish or bullish for PayPal. 01:01:11 - Whether PayPal is attractively valued at its current levels. 01:10:05 - Whether Shawn & Daniel add PYPL to The Intrinsic Value Portfolio. And much, much more!
*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
- Sign Up for The Intrinsic Value Community.
- Emerging Value Substack Article.
- Crossroad’s Interview with Alex Chriss.
- PayPal 2025 Investor Day.
- The Reservist Article on the Payment Industry.
- Jimmy Soni’s Book on The PayPal Mafia.
- Explore our previous Intrinsic Value breakdowns: Uber,Nike, Reddit, Nintendo, Airbnb, AutoZone, Alphabet, Ulta, John Deere, and Madison Square Garden Sports.
- Check out the books mentioned in the podcast here.
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