Outlook on lead times

Demand for turbines is growing fast, but so are lead times — causing serious headaches for developers and even cancellations. In Texas, one of six cancelled projects cited “equipment procurement constraints” as the reasons for its withdrawal. 

Lead times are stretching to four years and sometimes more. Costs are climbing. So what’s behind the bottleneck?

In this episode, Shayle talks to Anthony Brough, founder and CEO of Dora Partners, a consulting firm focused on the turbine market. Shayle and Anthony cover topics like: 

Why previous boom-bust cycles in turbine manufacturing have left the industry skittish — and why Anthony says leaders are approaching this new peak with “guarded optimism”

The competing demands on the turbine supply chain, including from power, oil and gas, and aerospace industries

How lead times have ballooned to four years and, in some cases, even longer

Factors affecting the market beyond load growth, like renewables, storage, affordable gas, and coal retirements

How investment in tech innovation has raised turbine efficiency 

How the industry is preparing for hydrogen — if hydrogen scales up

Resources:

Latitude Media: Engie’s pulled project highlights the worsening economics of gas

Latitude Media: High costs, delays prompt withdrawal of five more Texas gas plants

Power Magazine: Gas Power's Boom Sparks a Turbine Supply Crunch

Marketplace: Will we have enough natural gas turbines to power AI data centers?

CTVC: 🌎 Gas turbine gridlock #236

Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.

Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com.

Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can’t wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy’s fuel cells, they don’t have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting BloomEnergy.com.

Catalyst is supported by Third Way. Third Way’s new PACE study surveyed over 200 clean energy professionals to pinpoint the non-cost barriers delaying clean energy deployment today and offers practical solutions to help get projects over the finish line. Read Third Way's full report, and learn more about their PACE initiative, at www.thirdway.org/pace.