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Ep 18: Ch 9, Part 3: “Optimism”

ToKCast

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How Did the Coin Fall?

The probability of your cubicle being between number one and number ten is going to be one nten, ok? Because there's actually a hundred cubicles. Now we have additional information. We can now look at all the doors. There are Is one through to a hundred, but you're in number seven. The precise new probability of tales can be calculated using bas theorem. It is approximately 91%. So after finding that you are in cubical number seven, you should think, with 91 % probability, that there are only ten people.

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