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Jurrien Timmer: The Trade For A 2023 Recession

The Macro Trading Floor

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Introduction

The bond market is now sort of pricing a recession into 2023. The fed cut interest rates on average by 300 basis point in 12 months And 400 basis point in 24 months cumulative So then I looked at the software market. Basically they implied fed funds by a futures and let's say my models are saying and the rest of the recession is likely to start anywhere between March and April 2023 so I took March 8th of 2023 as the potential starting point for pesto post.

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