Robin Hanson on the Age of AI and Large Language Models
Closer To Truth
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Understanding Prediction Markets
This chapter explores the functionality and reliability of prediction markets compared to traditional judgment methods. It discusses how these markets utilize collective intelligence, incentivizing participation to generate honest and accurate predictions. The chapter also highlights a significant DARPA project from 2003 that faced ethical backlash but laid the groundwork for future interest in prediction markets for intelligence applications.
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