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The Free Energy Principle and How Predictive Processing Works
Base rate neglect is a source of some very often common reasoning errors. In fact, if I can draw it back to the brain, and that's a great example to illustrate it exactly because this goes to the heart of the free energy principle. If it wasn't a foggy day, the sensory data is lowly weighted. Technically we say that it's got low precision, which is the inverse of variance.