U.S.–Shanghai Price Divergence Signals Tight Supply

Simon notes widening US-Shanghai spreads as a sign of regional supply constraints and restricted arbitrage.

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Episode notes

After BCE cut its dividend in mid-2025, investor capital rotated into TELUS as the next high-yield alternative. In this episode, we examine whether TELUS is now facing the same fate or whether the comparison is flawed.

We break down the key differences between TELUS and BCE at the point of stress, focusing on free cash flow coverage, leverage, capital intensity, growth outlook, and management execution. While TELUS’s dividend remains uncovered today, improving free cash flow and contributions from capital-light segments such as TELUS Health and TELUS Digital differentiate it from BCE’s deteriorating position prior to its cut.

We also discuss the specific scenarios that could force a dividend reduction, including stalled tech-segment growth, regulatory pressure, and prolonged share-price weakness, as well as one recent management move that raises concerns around signaling.

In the second half, we shift to silver and explain what is driving the recent price surge. We cover CME margin hikes, record physical delivery requests, backwardation, U.S.–Shanghai price divergence, China’s new export restrictions, and silver’s addition to the U.S. critical minerals list. The conclusion: this is primarily an industrial and geopolitical supply story, not a monetary hedge narrative.

Tickers discussed: T.TO, BCE.TO, PSLV, PAAS, AG, HL, CDE, WPM, SIL, SILJ

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