The Principle of Simplity and Elegance

A so i think as a matter of how we how we value subjective probabilities, in that sense, simplicity is a principle. But i think that has, like, very little to do with reality at all, right? Ecause we're talking about ourselves now. We're not talking about the world in itself. I think it's just a mathematical probability,. k sole let's s i have a hypothesis that's 99 % likely. Really good one, right? And but now, i order to give an explanation, i have to bet on two 99 % likely hypotheses, ok? The overall probability goes down now, because you got to hit two 99. And hitting two 99 is always less