How do export controls affect AI chip flow?

Truly, nothing is new and everything has happened before and so we find ourselves, amidst a collapsing geopolitical order with some very fancy gadgets (an expensive plane and some chips) going wanting and going missing. What connects them? A rumour that, coincidentally, started about the same time that JD Vance turned up in Munich to shake the NATO tree. 

To some it might be conspiracy, but never mistake for malice what is better attributed to complacency. Instead what we have here is a great example of one of the most interesting phenomena in futures and the fact that truly, nothing is new, and everything has happened before. 

Links:

• The End of History and the Last Man, Francis Fukuyama: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_End_of_History_and_the_Last_Man
• Spain, Switzerland Cancel F35 Jet Order Over Trump’s Europe Policy, Defense Mirror: https://www.defensemirror.com/news/40014
• Three reasons Canada and Portugal may cancel order for US-made fighter jets. The Independent: https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/europe-canada-portugal-f35-fighter-jets-trump-eurofighter-b2718770.html
• India rules out F-35s as defense ties with US face new turbulence. AeroTime: https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/india-rules-out-f-35s-as-defense-ties-with-us-face-new-turbulence
• The F-35 ‘Kill Switch’: Separating Myth from Reality, The Aviationist: https://theaviationist.com/2025/03/10/f-35-kill-switch-myth/
• DIY Tractor Repair Runs Afoul Of Copyright Law, NPR: https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2015/08/17/432601480/diy-tractor-repair-runs-afoul-of-copyright-law
• US farmers win right to repair John Deere equipment, BBC News: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64206913
• Inside the Biden Administration's Gamble to Freeze China’s AI Future, WIRED: https://www.wired.com/story/chips-china-artificial-intelligence-controls
• Cotton Introduces Bill to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Chips to America’s Adversaries and Protect U.S. Product Integrity, Tom Cotton: https://www.cotton.senate.gov/news/press-releases/cotton-introduces-bill-to-prevent-diversion-of-advanced-chips-to-americas-adversaries-and-protect-us-product-integrity
• Can “Location Verification” Stop AI Chip Smuggling?, AI Frontiers: https://ai-frontiers.org/articles/location-verification-ai-chips
• Killing machines: how Russia and Ukraine’s race to perfect deadly pilotless drones could harm us all, The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/25/ukraine-russia-autonomous-drones-ai
• U.S. Army Tests Robotic Vehicle near Russia, Defense Blog: https://defence-blog.com/u-s-army-tests-robotic-vehicle-near-russia/
• 1966: Children Imagine Life in the Year 2000, BBC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xS8xX3usi4c 
• Ghosts of My Life, Mark Fisher: https://burleyfisherbooks.com/products/9781780992266