Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the October 2024 FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's surprisingly hawkish stance despite mounting evidence of labor market weakness. Danielle questions whether the Fed is ignoring its dual mandate as major companies like UPS, GM, Meta, and Amazon announce tens of thousands of layoffs. She discusses the dissents from both Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Schmid, explores potential political dynamics at play within the Fed, and examines growing stress in private credit markets, commercial real estate, and rising corporate bankruptcies. Danielle also highlights alternative labor market indicators like state-by-state data and WARN notices that paint a concerning picture of the economy, while emphasizing the importance of compassion for struggling American families heading into the holiday season.
This episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia
This show is brought to you by Monetary Metals.
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Links:
Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth
Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI
Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655
0:00 Introduction & episode 300 celebration
1:37 FOMC meeting reaction - Powell's hawkish tone
2:33 What's really going on at the Fed?
3:48 The two dissenters - Miran & Schmid
5:39 Market reaction to Powell's comments
6:17 The Fed's labor mandate - are they ignoring it?
7:16 Major layoff announcements - UPS, GM, Meta, Amazon
8:00 Is the Fed sticking it to the administration?
9:55 Fed balance sheet & mortgage-backed securities
16:19 Private credit market concerns
27:04 Corporate bankruptcies rising
28:18 October bankruptcy data - highest post-pandemic
29:22 Interest rate impact on corporate refinancing
30:05 What would you ask Powell? State-by-state data
31:29 WARN notices & real labor market data
32:19 Layoffs aren't free - cost to companies
33:10 ADP weekly data as labor market indicator
33:26 Message of compassion during the holidays
34:29 Closing & where to find Danielle's work
35:09 QI Research & Daily Feather newsletter
