How Prediction Markets React to Insider Info

In this episode, Chuck Todd explores the growing bipartisan momentum to rein in Big Tech, noting that while social media’s unintended consequences have already eroded truth and public trust, AI could amplify those failures without strong guardrails. He breaks down why Americans overwhelmingly support protecting kids from tech harms—and why a public revolt is inevitable once people feel they’ve lost control. Chuck also looks at how massive AI investment is masking broader economic weakness before turning to Donald Trump’s botched economic message in Pennsylvania, a “let them eat cake” tone that echoes the same political trap Biden once fell into. With surprising Democratic wins in Miami and Georgia and a demoralizing trend inside the GOP base, the political landscape is shifting fast, especially as ACA subsidies near expiration and no healthcare compromise is in sight. Chuck then pivots to the rise of prediction markets—how they move on insider information, how they could be manipulated by political actors, and why the “casinofication” of news threatens to reduce all political coverage to a risky, easily gamed horse race.

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming college football slate.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 There is bipartisan support for pushing back on tech

05:00 AI regulation to protect kids has massive support

06:15 The public will revolt over tech when they feel they lose control

08:00 Social media came with unintended consequences, AI could be similar

08:45 Social media has destroyed truth

09:30 AI needs guardrails that have been missing from social media

10:45 AI investment is masking a recession for much of the country

12:30 Trump botches economic message at PA rally

13:15 Trump has a tone deaf, let them eat cake mindset

14:45 The Trump WH walking into the same trap Biden did on economy

15:30 Elections in Miami and Georgia showed GOP is in real trouble

17:30 First time a Democrat won Miami mayor in nearly 30 years

18:15 Democratic voters are fired up & more reliable

19:45 The base of the Republican party is becoming demoralized

21:00 ACA credits set to expire, no compromise healthcare deal yet

22:15 Question for audience: Do you follow and participate in prediction markets?

24:00 Prediction markets move when they get insider info

25:45 Prediction markets seemed to know fed interest rate cut was coming

27:00 Is it wise to allow people to bet on basically everything?

28:45 Gambling is highly regulated, prediction markets are not

29:30 Certain people will know outcomes in advance and can game the system

30:45 Trump allies could game the system on predictions of his actions

32:15 Predictions that can be manipulated should be outlawed

34:00 Prediction markets could make all political coverage “horse race” style

35:15 The “casinofication” of news comes with risks

40:30 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Julie Scelfo

43:00 Thoughts on a limited TV series on the constitutional convention?

46:30 Favorite movies & Ken Burns doc?

52:00 Outlook on the primary races in Texas and Montana?

1:00:30 What if archduke Franz Ferdinand's driver took a different turn?

1:05:30 College football preview

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