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Skanda Amarnath & Michael Gayed: Unraveling the Fiscal Policy-Inflation-Asset Prices Nexus

Lead-Lag Live

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The Dark Spaces of Inflation

The Fed is focused on the headline numbers, but there are other parts of inflation that we don't get to see until the PC release. These include imputed financial services and wage data from random sectors like life insurance companies or churches. If these sorts of dynamics play out in a more favorable light, then wages could decelerate as input cost deceleration shows up. But it probably put some like extra downside risk if we are seeing deposit rates play catch up.

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