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World outlook: The waiting game...

Podzept from Deutsche Bank Research

CHAPTER

Introduction

Jim Reed, Head of Macroeconomics at Deutsche Bank: This is shaping up to be that first boom bus cycle for over 40 years. The biggest surge in money supply in 2021 since World War II was always going to lead to high inflation. Since the strong demand underlying this inflation was induced by expansive fiscal and monetary policy,. it was always inevitable that you would need an aggressive cycle of rate hikes to deal with it. Assuming that materializes it now has, it's tough to avoid some kind of hard landing with an appropriate lag.

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