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Ep143 - Leonard Mlodinow | The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives

Talks at Google

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Is There a False Positive Test?

The false positive rate is much higher than the actual incident rate. If a doctor ever tells you in a medical test that these are the false positive ratings, and doesn't tell you any more, then the doctor has told you nothing at all. You have no idea what the result of a positive test means. It could be anything from zero, two, one, ok? And i realize that we all makese these kinds of decisions and misjudgments when we look at the world around us. One of the illusions that people have that causes us to have a hard time grasping the role of random ness is called the illusion of control.

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