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Once is random, twice is coincidence, here's three and we have something.

Eurodollar University

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The Uncertainty of the Resilient Economy

The DSGE models now project a mean of 0.96%. The 68% confidence interval is anywhere between minus 3 and plus 5. That's an 8 point spread. We just don't know because the level of uncertainty is huge. Federal bankers are looking at the uncertainty in these models and inferring this Phillips curve labor tightness resilient economy narrative. Meanwhile, the real economy is nothing like those rate hikes or the uncertainty in the models. Just ask the Chinese.

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