Exploring the Role of Data Insights in Venture Capital

Is it true that founders should still own 50% of a company after a Series A fundraising round? Is 10% ownership at IPO a win or a loss? This episode delves into the topic of dilution, breaking down how much of your company you should sell at each stage, how to approach employee and advisor equity, and what employees should know about equity before taking a job. To answer these questions is Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, and someone with a strong read on where the private tech market is headed. He and CJ also discuss when the best time to join a startup is and which cities outside of New York and San Francisco are desirable for people in this space. Peter shares insight into the state of the markets in 2025: What is happening with bridge rounds and down rounds, the odds of making it from seed to Series A, and the most telling statistic: AI funding.

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LINKS:

Peter Walker on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterjameswalker/

Carta:

https://carta.com/

Carta’s Founder Ownership Report 2025: https://carta.com/data/founder-ownership/

Carta’s published data reports: carta.com/data

CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222

Mostly metrics:

http://mostlymetrics.com

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TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) Preview and Intro

(02:33) Sponsor – Pulley | Tropic | NetSuite

(07:17) Head of Insights at Carta

(09:32) The Users of Carta

(12:20) Multiplayer Finance and Serving Both Sides

(16:24) Sponsor – Planful | Tabs | Rippling Spend

(20:15) Dilution: How Much Ownership You Should Give Up at Each Stage

(23:02) What SAFEs Are

(24:31) The Median Amount of Ownership for a Founding Team After the Series A

(26:21) Should You Still Own 50% of the Company After Series A

(27:18) Is 10% Ownership for a Founder at IPO Normal?

(30:41) The Other Form of Dilution: Employee Equity Grants

(34:25) What Employees Should Know About Equity Before Taking a Job

(37:51) Why Equity Is Not Money

(38:54) ISOs Versus RSUs

(40:43) The Best and Worst Risk-Adjusted Time To Join a Startup

(44:48) Remuneration by Location in Private Tech

(47:39) Equity Comp by Location

(48:43) Advisor Equity by Stage

(51:28) Bridge Rounds Versus Down Rounds in the Last 6–12 Months

(55:36) Survival Rates From Seed to Series A to Series B

(57:36) The Best Time of Year To Fundraise

(59:05) The Typical Age of a Startup When It’s Acquired or It Exits

(01:03:19) The State of the Market in 2025: AI Funding

(01:06:18) Wrap

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#dilution #equity #stateofthemarket #privatetech #carta