Speaker 1
When you think about how the difference between a booming economy and a deep recession or a depression is less than can be less than 10 points of GDP, 25 points of GDP is a big friggin deal. just that it's a big deal in the aggregate. It's not like that 20, you know, if you, if you start mucking around and slashing at that 25% of GDP, it's not like it'll all be felt equally across the economy. Some sectors of the economy will be crushed and some will be fine, right? I don't think it's an accident that Silicon Valley is largely, I mean, it depends on the specific firms and all that kind of stuff. But, you know, because Apple has a lot at stake with tariffs, to be sure. Amazon has a lot at stake with tariffs, to be sure. But like a lot of these software firms and, you know, and AI firms, they can weather high tariffs, right? They can weather reciprocal tariffs on eggs and pork bellies and soybeans and all that kind of stuff. It's, you know, but car parts manufacturers, companies that deal with lighting and refrigeration or any of that kind of stuff, they could be really devastated by all this. Regardless, the markets aren't just freaking out about the potential for tariffs. I think if Trump had announced his tariffs and stuck with it and said, this is the way it's going to be for my administration, rather than wave tariffs around like some teenager who just got a gun and thinks it's really cool to wave around and put away and like, you're talking to me, draw it on the mirror and show everybody and brag about it and all that and twirl around like, you know he's a gunslinger. He keeps taking out these tariffs, putting them away. It's the complete uncertainty about what will happen next. And my God, I can't remember how many conservatives, I guarantee you, the Heritage Foundation did dozens of these kind of, I mean, I haven't looked, so I'm open to correction, but Heritage and Heritage adjacent people, Fox adjacent, you know, Fox and Fox adjacent people, certainly us at National Review. that his approach to economic policy was creating this massive climate of uncertainty. And that uncertainty scares business, scares the stock market, right? You want, if you're a businessman and you're thinking about expanding, if you're thinking about building a new factory or opening a new franchise, you want some predictability, right? That's the only way you feel comfortable doing it because then you can figure out the math. If you think the economy is going to be veering and zigzagging all over the place, you hold onto your money, you hold onto your capital and you wait until the picture gets more clear. And this is just not a new insight, but it's amazing to me how many of the people who used to make that point as a routine manner of economic and political punditry are now just sort of holding their tongue and talking about how great Trump is with all of this stuff. Trump is creating a massive climate of uncertainty and not just regards to, you know, trade, but geosecurity, geopolitics, war and peace, like people just don't know what this guy is going to do. And he thinks that's really cool because it makes him look powerful, right? That's one of the great, one of the sort of buzzes that you get when you're high on your own power is that you can be capricious and unpredictable. And it makes you feel more powerful because you watch everybody flinch, right? It's like bullies love to see it when they raise their hand to their hair. Everybody, you know, all the weak kids flinch because they're afraid he's, they're going to hit it. The guy's going to hit him again. That's how Trump wields power. And I'm not saying it's the only explanation for it. I also just don't think he knows what he's freaking doing. But regardless, this is just such amateur hour stuff. Do you love the Dispatch podcast and want to signal to the people around you that you listen to the full episode? Check out our merch store. We've got mugs, stickers, pullovers, hats, even dog bowls for the four-legged dispatcher in your life. Head to thedispatch.com/store and check it out. Anyway, there's this point that Scott Linsicum makes.