Michael Gentile, strategic investor in the junior mining sector and co-founder of Bastion Asset Management, discusses the current state of the gold mining industry and its potential for mean reversion. He highlights that gold mining stocks are trading at depressed levels despite record-high gold prices, creating a compelling entry point for investors. Gentile notes that while gold prices have tripled since 2018, gold mining stocks have lagged behind, offering significant value.
Gentile emphasizes the importance of investing in commodities during periods of low sentiment and depressed prices, as this setup often precedes substantial returns. He points to historical cycles where negative sentiment and undervaluation led to major rebounds in gold mining stocks. Gentile also underscores the strong fundamentals of the industry, including record margins and free cash flow generation, which he attributes to higher gold prices and stable costs.
He contrasts the current market with past periods, such as 2015-2020, where similar conditions led to significant rallies in gold mining stocks. Gentile believes that the sector is poised for a rotation, driven by improving fundamentals and macroeconomic factors like central bank buying of gold and geopolitical uncertainties. He also notes that while tech stocks have outperformed gold mining stocks historically, the latter now offers a unique opportunity due to its undervaluation.
Gentile advises investors to diversify their exposure to the sector through ETFs or baskets of producing companies before moving into higher-risk junior miners. He stresses patience and a long-term perspective, as building mines takes time and requires careful consideration of jurisdictional risks and infrastructure challenges.
In conclusion, Gentile sees the gold mining sector as a multi-year tailwind driven by macroeconomic trends, including the repositioning of gold as a hedge against inflation and the US dollar's decline. He encourages investors to allocate at least 5-10% of their portfolios to gold or related equities to preserve wealth in uncertain times.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Mining Valuations & Risk3:08 - Catalysts & Charts7:24 - Margin Expansion Growth13:53 - Miners & Projections16:08 - Global Slowdown Impacts?19:10 - Capital Rotation Charts25:15 - Timing & Positioning28:43 - Lassonde Curve & Patience32:13 - Other Metals & Sentiment34:46 - Project Timelines & Risks40:00 - M&A & Finding Projects45:50 - Secondary Project Factors48:20 - Rating Jurisdictions50:37 - Development & Resource Est.53:47 - Advice for New Investors56:37 - Portfolio Weightings59:23 - Concluding Thoughts
Guest Links:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-gentile-01028552Website: https://bastion-am.com
Michael Gentile, CFA, Founding Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager
Before founding BAM, Michael was Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager at Formula Growth Ltd for over 17 years. Michael co-managed the FG Alpha Fund (US SMid equity market neutral) between 2012 and 2018, co-managed the FG Focus Fund (US SMid long short strategy) between 2014 and 2018. Since leaving FG in 2018, Michael has been very successful investing in the gold sector also acting as Strategic Advisor and Director for several companies in the natural resource sector. Michael graduated with Great Distinction from the John Molson School of Business (Concordia University) with a Bachelor of Commerce (Finance) and received the Calvin Potter Fellowship from Concordia’s Kenneth Woods Portfolio Management Program. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation (CFA)
