If El Nino emerges and heats up India even more, our electricity demand could shoot up by 20-30% and we could be facing power shortages. Put all of these together and you will have a great recipe for inflation. It could give another reason for the central bank to tighten monetary policy. The International Monetary Fund observed that when the harshest El Nino phase swept over the globe in 1997-98, the US GDP had a net gain of about $15 billion or 0.2%.