Don’t expect a zebra
Think with Pinker
Introduction
Don't be too quick to diagnose an exotic disease just because it fits the patient's symptoms. It's likelier that someone has indigestion than eosin phylic interopathy. Neglecting base rates, guessing zebras rather than horses isn't just an occupational hazard of medical residence and their hypochondriac patients. Consider amelia, a college student described by her friends as impractical and sensitive. What do you think is her major? Psychology or art history? But wait isn't it a tency bit relevant that there are a hundred and 50 psychology majors for every art history major? Basrule says she's likelier to be a psyche major.
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