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In the summer of 2020, there was no greater proponent of the “commodity supercycle” thesis - the idea that commodity prices would appreciate for many years in a secular fashion - than Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception. Since then, commodity prices - copper, oil, natural gas, you name it - have skyrocketed. Yet Yang now argues that the commodity supercycle is in “intermission” because economic growth is slowing rapidly and liquidity is collapsing as central banks rapidly tightening monetary policy in order to combat inflation. Yang argues that long-term bonds (“duration) will likely perform well in this environment. Yang also shares his view on the Fed, inflation, volatility, and the dollar.
Filmed on August 1, 2022.
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(00:00) Introduction
(05:45) Liquidity Is Collapsing
(10:04) How Quickly Will Inflation Fall?
(21:38) Is The Fed Put Gone?
(26:48) Recessions in Asia, Europe, and the U.S.
(31:14) Are Chinese Stocks A Buy?
(37:02) European Stocks
(38:50) Is The Dollar Rally Over?
(45:22) 1984 Historical Analogue
(51:40) Term Premium, Explained
(57:30) Confidence Levels About Future Inflation
(1:02:08) Potential Hedges
(1:07:44) Most Common Investor Mistake
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
