Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4qlplEM
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the first of 2026, David L. Bahnsen reflects on the events of 2025 and provides insights and predictions for the year ahead. Key topics include the impact of the Trump administration's policies, particularly relating to tariffs and the tax bill, and their influence on the stock market and economy. David discusses major themes such as the performance of risk assets, the state of the AI industry, housing market trends, the significance of midterm elections, and the potential for small cap growth. Predictions for 2026 include the vulnerabilities in AI, the tug of war between economic drivers and headwinds, and the outlook for energy and M&A activities. The episode provides a comprehensive review and forward-looking analysis aimed at helping investors make informed decisions in the coming year.
00:00 Introduction and Annual Review Overview
01:47 Reflecting on 2025: Key Questions and Themes
06:18 Major Events and Market Reactions in Early 2025
10:14 Mid-Year Market Volatility and Policy Shifts
12:27 Third Quarter Market Dynamics and Labor Market Concerns
17:57 Year-End Market Performance and Sector Analysis
25:53 Evaluating 2025 Predictions and Themes
30:56 China Relations: A Bold Prediction
33:42 Financial Deregulation: A Mixed Bag
35:14 Earnings Disappointment: A Risky Theme
36:27 Corporate Activity: A Record Year
38:17 Deficit Reduction: A Contrarian View
40:11 Quantitative Tightening Ends
42:18 2026 Themes: AI Vulnerabilities
47:45 Economic Tug of War
50:06 Midterm Elections and Market Impact
51:38 Housing Market Predictions
53:11 Small Cap vs. S&P 500
53:51 Foreign Appetite for US Assets
54:43 Energy Sector: A Contrarian Opportunity
55:47 Mergers and Acquisitions Outlook
56:19 Conclusion: Upside Risks and Cautious Optimism
Links mentioned in this episode:
DividendCafe.com
TheBahnsenGroup.com
