What's the Most Plausible Scenario for Russian Victory?

Timothy Snyder: Did you think it was actually going to be a full-scale war until the airspace closure? He says up until that point, he still thought Ukraine would have to keep lots of their own troops defending the entire border and that would kind of make easier the Russian job of cutting off the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas itself. Snyder: It was my own bias because I didn't want these to start happening where I live, but that still was the most plausible scenario for Russian victory.